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Genetic Epidemiology

Wiley

Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match Genetic Epidemiology's content profile, based on 46 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.04% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Direct and mediated effects (DME) SLCMA: a novel method for life course modelling with time-varying covariates

Beer, S.; Simpkin, A. J.; Eldeeb, S. Y.; Zar, H. J.; Stein, D. J.; Dunn, E. C.; Smith, A. D. A. C.

2026-06-06 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.05.29.26354427 medRxiv
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Background: In prospective cohort studies, where an exposure is collected repeatedly, interest often lies in determining whether the timing of that exposure has a differential effect on a later outcome. The Structured Life Course Modeling Approach (SLCMA), where users select between temporal hypotheses of exposure specified a priori, provides one way to analyse such longitudinal data. However, few studies using SLCMA consider the effect of time-varying covariates (TVC) which may impact associations. Methods: We present a modified version of the SLCMA - called direct and mediated effects (DME)-SLCMA - which corrects for TVC. We first develop the DME-SLCMA method, test it through simulation, and apply it to psychosocial data from the Drakenstein Child Health Study (DCHS, n=336) to investigate relationships between maternal psychopathology, TVC of socioeconomic status, and offspring depressive symptoms. Results: We found that, on average, offspring depressive symptoms score increased by 3.9% (95% CI: 1.0%-6.9%, p = 0.039) for each unit of maternal psychopathology (SRQ) at 48 months whilst adjusting for time-varying socioeconomic status (at 18, 30, 42 and 54 months). Our simulations identified several realistic scenarios where selections ignoring TVC - with TVC mediated exposure effects present - were prone to be incorrect, including our DCHS example. Conclusion: DME-SLCMA is a robust new approach for life course modelling in the presence of time-varying covariates. We recommend adjusting for TVC whenever possible, and, when not possible, our simulation study identified that scenarios where mediated effects are comparable, or greater, in magnitude to direct effects are most prone to confounding.

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Investigating the Y chromosome in complex disease: Phenome-wide scan across 104,334 Finnish men

Preussner, A.; Leinonen, J. T.; FinnGen, ; Pirinen, M.; Tukiainen, T.

2026-06-10 genetic and genomic medicine 10.64898/2026.06.09.26355235 medRxiv
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Although the Y chromosome represents roughly 2% of the male genome, it is often ignored in genome-wide association studies (GWAS). Subsequently, the potential health impacts of Y-chromosomal genetic variation remain incompletely understood. To fill this gap, we performed a phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) in FinnGen across 1,426 binary and quantitative traits using Y-chromosomal variation (frequency [&ge;] 1%) in 104,334 genotyped men. As Y chromosome variation is prone to population stratification, we performed carefully adjusted association analyses and further examined these through kin-based validation in 19,275 female and 24,712 male 1st degree relatives. We found 121 suggestive (p < 5.6x10-3) phenotypic associations in the Y chromosome, yet none of these were strong enough to reach phenome-wide significance (p < 3.9x10-6). While only 38 associations were supported in the kin-based validation, intriguingly we found support for a previously suggested link between haplogroup I1 and coronary heart disease (CHD; OR=1.06, 95%CI=1.02-1.11, p=3.7x10-3; male validation OR=1.05; female validation OR=0.97). The I1-CHD association was detected across distinct geographical areas within Finland and was independent from Loss of Y (LOY) and the autosomal risk to CHD, proposing a link between germline Y-chromosomal variation and heart disease risk. Overall, this study presents a comprehensive phenome-wide analysis of Y-chromosomal associations, highlighting the potential relevance of Y-chromosomal variation beyond sex determination. Our findings further emphasize the need for improved capture of Y-chromosomal variants and further analyses in biobank-scale data to allow for deeper exploration of male-specific genetic architecture of complex diseases.

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Metatranscriptomics-Derived Disease Risk Scores as a Preventive, Diagnostic, and Treatment Support Tool

Hu, L.; Bass, M.; Patridge, E.; Molusky, M.; Antoine, G.; Vuyisich, M.; Banavar, G.

2026-06-06 genetic and genomic medicine 10.64898/2026.05.29.26354333 medRxiv
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Background: Chronic diseases and symptom syndromes often develop after prolonged biological changes that may precede formal diagnosis. RNA-based metatranscriptomics captures active microbial and human gene expression and may provide a functional layer for disease risk evaluation. To address this translational gap, we developed and validated a Disease Risk Score (DRS) framework that integrates metatranscriptome-derived pathway activity scores from stool, saliva, and blood samples, and evaluated its potential clinical utility as an adjunct risk-evaluation tool. Methods: DRS uses disease-specific sets of pathway activity scores derived from stool and saliva microbial functions, stool and saliva microbial taxa, and blood human gene expression. For each disease, 'not optimal' pathway scores are aggregated into a normalized cumulative odds ratio, or cOR, using score-level odds ratios, statistical significance, and literature-supported biological relevance derived from a Development Cohort of 22,369 individuals. A cOR [&ge;] 5 is defined as high risk. Performance is evaluated in an independent Validation Cohort of 15,908 individuals using self-reported diseases as the reference. Disease support requires both significant cOR separation between self-reported and not-reported (Cohen's d [&ge;] 0.2) and risk ratio enrichment of self-reported disease among individuals classified as high risk (95% CI of Risk Ratio > 1). Results: Of 20 initially evaluated diseases, 15 meet the prespecified validation criteria on the independent validation cohort: ADHD, anxiety, chronic fatigue syndrome, depression, GERD, hypertension, inflammatory bowel disease, IBS-C, IBS-D, insomnia, MASLD, obesity, obstructive sleep apnea, Sjogren's syndrome, and type 2 diabetes. Five selected clinical scenarios illustrate how DRS can support clinician-mediated decision making, including IBS subtype reclassification, improved diagnostic acceptance in IBS-D, personalized lifestyle counseling in MASLD and early type 2 diabetes, and diagnostic uncertainty in atypical GERD. Conclusions: DRS is a metatranscriptomics-based risk-stratification framework that aggregates active microbial and human pathway signals into interpretable disease-specific risk estimates across a wide range of disease conditions. Validation against self-reported disease labels in an independent cohort shows significant risk enrichment for each of 15 diseases. DRS is intended as an adjunct to clinical evaluation: a decision support tool in situations where routine care encounters uncertainty, delay, or low patient engagement. Future prospective studies using clinically adjudicated endpoints are needed to assess calibration and clinical outcomes.

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Population-scale detection of methylation outliers from long-read genome sequencing

Jensen, T. D.; Kaur, R.; Bonner, D. E.; Nguyen, J.; Reuter, C. M.; Undiagnosed Diseases Network, ; Genomics Research to Elucidate the Genetics of Rare Diseases (GREGoR) Consortium, ; Ashley, E. A.; Bernstein, J. A.; Wheeler, M. T.; Montgomery, S. B.

2026-06-11 genetic and genomic medicine 10.64898/2026.06.09.26355279 medRxiv
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Background: Aberrant DNA methylation can mediate the functional effects of rare genetic variation and contribute to imprinting disorders, repeat expansion diseases, and other pathogenic regulatory mechanisms. Long-read sequencing technologies now enable genome-wide detection of CpG methylation alongside genetic variation from a single assay. However, methods for systematic identification and interpretation of methylation outliers from long-read sequencing data remain limited. Methods: We developed METAFORA, a computational workflow for detecting methylation outlier regions from PacBio and Oxford Nanopore long-read sequencing data. METAFORA constructs population-level methylation references, segments the genome into correlated CpG blocks, infers technical and biological sources of variation through hidden factor estimation, models uncertainty due to variable depth sequencing, and computes covariate-adjusted methylation outlier scores for individual samples. We applied METAFORA across large long-read sequencing cohorts and integrated methylation outliers with multi-omic data. METAFORA is implemented as a snakemake workflow available at https://github.com/tjense25/METAFORA. Results: METAFORA identified methylation outlier regions associated with rare structural variants, tandem repeat expansions, and imprinting abnormalities. We found outlier regions were enriched for molecular outliers across transcriptomic and chromatin accessibility datasets, supporting their functional relevance in gene regulation. In a representative case, METAFORA identified an imprinting defect affecting the GNAS locus associated with an STX16 deletion. Conclusions: METAFORA enables scalable detection and interpretation of methylation outliers from long-read sequencing data and provides a framework for integrating epigenetic outliers with genomic and multi-omic analyses. These approaches may improve interpretation of rare regulatory variation and support discovery of clinically relevant epigenetic abnormalities in genomic medicine.

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STELLAR: A flexible ensemble learning framework integrating rare variants to enhance polygenic risk prediction

Chen, T.; Li, X.; Mazumder, R.; Zhang, H.; Lin, X.

2026-06-09 genetic and genomic medicine 10.64898/2026.06.07.26355109 medRxiv
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Whole-exome and whole-genome sequencing technology has enabled the discovery of rare genetic variants associated with human health and diseases. However, existing statistical methods used for rare variant association testing are not well-suited for building genetic risk prediction models that jointly incorporate rare and common variants. We propose STELLAR, a flexible ensemble learning-based approach to compute rare variant polygenic risk scores (PRS) using association summary statistics to enhance conventional common variant PRS. Our method combines burden-based and penalty-based rare variant analysis and leverages functional annotation information to prioritize potentially causal variants within the prediction models. In simulation studies, PRS using STELLAR consistently showed the highest prediction accuracy compared to models using common variants alone or rare variant burdens. Applied to UK Biobank whole-exome sequencing data (n=310,831) across eight continuous and five binary traits, STELLAR significantly improved prediction accuracy, refined stratification of individuals at the highest genetic risk beyond common variants, and prioritized biologically relevant genes. STELLAR provides a scalable strategy to incorporate rare variants into PRS in addition to common variants, advancing precision risk prediction and enabling more comprehensive assessment of genetic contributions to complex diseases.

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Mortality in people with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD): Examining how risk is embodied in a pooling of two prospective cohort studies

Li, H.; Ford, T.; Warrier, V.; Bell, S.; Batty, G. D.

2026-06-09 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.08.26355148 medRxiv
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Background. Nascent findings suggest that people with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) experience higher rates of mortality. To date, study samples have been insufficiently well-characterized to examine the mechanisms via which this neurodevelopmental condition elevates mortality risk. Methods. We used data from the 2007 and 2011 waves of the US National Health Interview Survey, a general population-based cohort study comprising 52097 adults (28675 women) aged 18 years or older at baseline. ADHD diagnosis and an array of demographic, socioeconomic, lifestyle, and co-morbidity (somatic and psychiatric) covariates were self-reported. Findings. At baseline, compared with unaffected individuals, participants with ADHD were more likely to be socioeconomically disadvantaged, smoke cigarettes, consume alcohol, and report symptoms of psychological distress. A median 7.75 years of mortality surveillance (range: 7.25-12.25) gave rise to 6597 deaths from all-causes. After adjustment for age, sex, ethnicity, and survey year, ADHD was associated with a markedly elevated risk of death (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]: 1.58 [1.20-2.09]). Statistical adjustment for socioeconomic circumstances (11% attenuation), physical co-morbidities (15%), and lifestyle factors (17%) had only a modest impact on the ADHD-death gradient, with the greatest explanatory power apparent for symptoms of depression and anxiety (58%). The magnitude of the association of ADHD with mortality was commensurate to that for several well-established risk factors such as poverty (1.66 [1.55-1.78]), hypertension (1.41 [1.32-1.51]), and diabetes (1.71 [1.59-1.85]) but somewhat lower than cigarette smoking (2.51 [2.29-2.76]) after controlling for age, sex, ethnicity, and survey year. Associations between ADHD and cause-specific mortality from cardiovascular disease, cancer, and chronic respiratory disease were inconclusive. Interpretation. In the present study, the influence of ADHD on total mortality appears to be largely embodied via a series of malleable characteristics, particularly mental illness. If confirmed elsewhere, these results raise the possibility that risk factor modification via standard pharmacological and behavioral interventions could help reduce rates of premature mortality in this patient group. Funding. This paper received no direct funding. GDB is supported by the UK Medical Research Council (MR/P023444/1) and the US National Institute on Aging (1R56AG052519-01, 1R01AG052519-01A1).

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Integrated cardiometabolic and nutritional risk profiling identifies pregnancy loss as a marker of systemic metabolic vulnerability

Agarwal, T.; Namburu, J. R.; Kachroo, P.

2026-06-08 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.04.26354910 medRxiv
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Background: Pregnancy loss has important implications for womens health. Although maternal age is a well-established risk factor, the contribution of routinely measured cardiometabolic and behavioral markers at population-scale remains incompletely characterized. Objective: To examine associations between cardiometabolic, nutritional, and behavioral risk markers and pregnancy loss among U.S. women of reproductive age. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of 4,842 U.S. women aged 20-44 years with [&ge;]1 pregnancy using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data (2013-2023). Pregnancy loss was defined as [&ge;]1 prior miscarriages. Exposures included body mass index, smoking exposure (cotinine), lipid biomarkers, vitamin D and folate, and a composite cardiometabolic-nutritional risk score. Survey-weighted logistic regression estimated adjusted odds ratios (aORs) and 95% confidence intervals, with bootstrap resampling for predictor robustness. Results: The weighted prevalence of pregnancy loss was 23%. Higher odds of pregnancy loss were associated with increasing age (aOR per year=1.02; 95% CI: 1.00-1.04), Non-Hispanic Black race (aOR=1.32; 95% CI: 1.00-1.74), overweight (aOR=1.56; 95% CI: 1.16-2.11), obesity (aOR=2.06; 95% CI: 1.39-3.05), and smoking (aOR=1.58; 95% CI: 1.19-2.10). Adverse lipid profiles, particularly elevated triglycerides (aOR=1.83; 95% CI: 1.16-2.90) and high low-density lipoprotein (aOR=2.97; 95% CI: 1.45-6.61), were independently associated with pregnancy loss. Vitamin D/folate were not stable predictors. Higher composite cardiometabolic-nutritional risk scores were observed among women with pregnancy loss (P=0.026). Conclusion: Pregnancy loss clustered with adverse cardiometabolic and behavioral risk markers in a nationally representative population. These findings highlight pregnancy loss as a marker of broader metabolic vulnerability supporting the need for longitudinal studies and cardiometabolic profiling to inform preconception care and risk stratification.

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Plasma protein prioritisation in rheumatoid arthritis reveals druggable targets and shared biology with cardiovascular diseases

Alduhayhi, S. S.; Morris, A. P.; Zhao, S.; Bowes, J.

2026-06-11 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.10.26355332 medRxiv
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Abstract Background Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is an autoimmune inflammatory disease with complex and incompletely understood molecular mechanisms. Understanding circulating proteins associated with RA may improve understanding of disease biology and clarify its pathological links with cardiometabolic comorbidities. Methods A proteome-wide two-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR) drug target analysis was conducted using plasma proteins measured in 54,219 participants from the UK Biobank Pharma Proteomics Project as exposures and RA and cardiometabolic diseases as the outcomes. Summary statistics for RA included 53,663 cases and 1,070,200 controls. Colocalisation analysis was performed to confirm shared single causal variants and prioritise RA proteins supported by both MR and colocalisation. The prioritised proteins were then evaluated in the Accelerating Medicines Partnership RA Phase II synovial single-cell dataset for cell-type expression patterns. Druggability was then assessed followed by analysis of genetic overlap between RA-associated proteins and cardiometabolic diseases. Results 37 plasma proteins had a causal effect on RA risk, supported by combined evidence from MR and conditional colocalisation. In synovial tissue, TPPP3, RARRES2, AKAP12, and GGT5 were predominantly expressed in stromal and endothelial cell clusters. Druggability assessment identified IFNGR2, IL6R, CD40, and FCGR2B as Tier 1 targets. However, several biologically relevant proteins, including RARRES2, AKAP12, TPPP3, and SNX2, had limited available druggability data. Genetic overlap analysis demonstrated shared protein signals between RA and cardiovascular diseases, including overlap of RARRES2 and TPPP3 with coronary artery disease (CAD) and FCGR2B with atrial fibrillation (AF). To approximate the therapeutic effect of target inhibition, the direction of effect estimates for proteins showing overlap between RA-CAD and RA-AF was reversed. Conclusion This study identified circulating proteins involved in RA pathogenesis and reveals shared mechanisms between RA and cardiovascular diseases. While some proteins showed clear translational potential targets, several prioritised proteins had limited available druggability information and could not be confidently classified. Addressing these gaps may help identify new targets relevant to RA management. Future work should also use phenome-wide MR studies to evaluate potential on-target adverse effects of protein inhibition across RA-CAD and RA-AF.

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Reduced nighttime smartphone use among cohabiting partners: a longitudinal study under the lens of social control of health behaviors theory

Klasson, T. A.; Rod, N. H.; Zucco, A. G.

2026-06-12 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.09.26355243 medRxiv
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Objective: We examined the link between cohabitation with a partner and nighttime smartphone use through the social control of health behavior theory. Background: Nighttime smartphone use is a behavioral risk factor for sleep problems. While previous research has predominantly focused on individual-level risks of sleep disturbances, the role of social context remains underexplored. Theoretical frameworks, specifically the Social Control of Health Behavior, suggest that social relationships regulate health-related behaviors; however, it is unclear how far this regulation extends to modern digital behaviors among couples. Method: We analyzed survey data from three waves of the SmartSleep Study (2018, 2020, and 2023; total N = 25,028), including a longitudinal follow-up subset (N = 1,003). We tested multivariate associations between living with a partner, changes in cohabitation status and frequent nighttime smartphone use by fitting generalized linear mixed-effects models. Additionally, we mapped the complex interplay between indicators of social integration, social support, smartphone use, and sleep quality using hierarchical clustering of non-linear correlations. Results: Cohabiting participants had lower odds of frequent nighttime smartphone use compared to those living alone (OR = 0.66; 95% CI: 0.61, 0.72). This lower risk was driven primarily by cohabitation with a partner (OR = 0.49; 95% CI: 0.36, 0.66). Longitudinal analysis supported these findings, showing that sustained cohabitation was associated with less frequent nighttime use (OR = 0.56; 95% CI: 0.38, 0.82). Clustering analysis revealed that indicators of social integration and support clustered with favorable sleep quality. Conclusion: Our findings suggest that the health-protective effects of cohabitation with a partner extend to digital behaviors. Consistent with social control of health behavior theory, the presence of a partner appears to reduce frequent nighttime smartphone use, highlighting the critical importance of considering social context when addressing digital health hygiene and promoting sleep.

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Association between depressive symptoms and physical function among participants with heart disease in the Reasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) study.

Fasokun, M. E.; Safford, M. M.; Khodneva, Y.; Colantonio, L. D.; Goyal, P.; Alanaeme, C. J.; Hanif, A. A. M.; Enogela, E. M.; Bowling, C. B.; Levitan, E. B.

2026-06-11 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.09.26355319 medRxiv
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Background: Depression and heart disease frequently co-occur in the aging population and are associated with functional decline and poor health outcomes. Understanding how depressive symptoms relate to different aspects of physical function among adults with heart disease may help identify high-risk subgroups. Objective: To examine the association of depressive symptoms with self-reported and observed physical function measures among participants with heart disease in the Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) study and assess whether associations differ by sex and race?sex groups. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis using data from REGARDS study second in-home visit (2013?2016). Depressive symptoms were measured with the 10-item Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression scale (CES D 10), considering scores ?10 as clinically significant. Physical function measures were instrumental activities of daily living (IADL), activities of daily living (ADL), chair stand time (5 repetitions), and gait speed. Linear regression models estimated associations of depressive symptoms with function, adjusting for sociodemographic, health behavior, antidepressant medications, body mass index, and social support. Effect modification by sex and race?sex group was evaluated. Results: Among 3,055 participants, 11.7% had CES D 10 ?10. Compared to CES-D-10 scores <10, CES D 10 ?10 was associated with more limitations in IADL (1.84 points; 95% CI 1.62, 2.06), ADL (0.43 points; 95% CI 0.34, 0.52) and slower chair stand time (0.88 second; 95% CI 0.07, 1.69); associations with gait speed were modest (?0.04 meters/second; 95% CI ?0.08, -0.01). Women had a stronger association between CES-D-10 and ADL (0.49 points; 95% CI 0.35, 0.64) than men (0.33 points; 95% CI 0.21, 0.44; p for interaction = 0.01). Interaction between CES D 10 and race?sex groups was not statistically significant. Conclusions: Among adults with heart disease, clinically significant depressive symptoms were associated with lower physical function, particularly among women.

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Long-term Penetrance of Disease Variants in Genes Prioritized for Genomic Newborn Screening: Evidence from Adult Biobanks

Gold, N. B.; Zouk, H.; Yeo, J.; Lipsitz, S.; Koyama, S.; Somanchi, H.; Perez, E.; Selvaraj, M. S.; O'Grady, L.; Miller, E.; Lewis, A. C. F.; Karlson, E. W.; Strong, A.; Gold, J. I.; Rehm, H. L.; Natarajan, P.; Green, R. C.

2026-06-11 genetic and genomic medicine 10.64898/2026.06.10.26355380 medRxiv
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Importance: Genomic newborn screening (gNBS) is a potential public health intervention, but its positive predictive value (PPV) remains uncertain. Estimating the prevalence and penetrance of pathogenic and likely pathogenic (P/LP) variants in genes prioritized for screening may clarify the long-term PPV and clinical utility of gNBS. Objective: To compare ICD-based ascertainment, electronic medical record (EMR) review, and clinical assessment of genetic disorders in adults with P/LP variants in 54 genes prioritized for gNBS. Design: Two-cohort observational study with EMR review and clinical assessment in the hospital-based cohort. Setting: The U.K. Biobank (UKB) and Mass General Brigham Biobank (MGBB). Participants: 451,877 adults from the UKB and 53,371 from the MGBB, all with exome sequencing data. Exposures: P/LP variants in 54 genes prioritized through expert consensus for gNBS, in genotypes consistent with each gene's inheritance pattern. Main outcomes and measures: The primary outcome was the absolute difference in the proportion of MGBB participants identified as affected by ICD versus EMR ascertainment. Secondary outcomes included findings from clinical assessments of undiagnosed MGBB participants, corrected UKB penetrance estimates, and extrapolation to U.S.. annual birth cohorts and living adults. Results: P/LP variants were identified in 665 UKB participants (0.15%) and 82 MGBB participants (0.15%), approximately 1 in 650. In MGBB, EMR review revealed that 58/82 individuals (70.7%) were undiagnosed, although 25 of 58 (43.1%) had documented symptoms. Disease-associated ICD codes were found in 39.0% (32/82) of participants, whereas EMR review identified symptoms in 59.8% (49/82, McNemar P<.001). Applied to UKB, this correction yielded a penetrance of 28.4% (95% CI, 18.6% to 38.2%), implying that 73 to 203 participants beyond the 51 identified by ICD codes may have clinical features of disease. Extrapolated to U.S. birth cohorts, 4,900 to 5,700 newborns per year may harbor P/LP variants in these genes and survive into adulthood. Approximately 355,000 to 410,000 U.S. adults may have P/LP variants in these genes. Conclusions and relevance: Penetrance of P/LP variants in genes prioritized for gNBS is substantially higher than ICD estimates suggest. Many adults with P/LP variants are symptomatic but undiagnosed, supporting inclusion of these genes in gNBS.

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Rare neurological and neurodevelopmental variants in ALS link to onset, survival and family history

O'Donoghue, C.; Kacar, E.; Gomes, T.; Costello, E.; Pender, N.; Peelo, C.; Ryan, M.; Heverin, M.; Byrne, S.; Bede, P.; Hardiman, O.; McLaughlin, R. L.; Byrne, R. P.

2026-06-10 genetic and genomic medicine 10.64898/2026.06.09.26354977 medRxiv
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Background: Neurological, neuropsychiatric, and neurodevelopmental disorders cluster in ALS families, sharing a common genetic architecture with ALS. Pathogenic variants in genes associated with other neurological, neurodevelopmental, or neuropsychiatric disorders may also co-occur in ALS and modify phenotype. We have sought to determine the prevalence and clinical pattern of likely-pathogenic/pathogenic (LP/P) non-ALS neurological, neurodevelopmental, and neuropsychiatric variants, alone and in combination with ALS-gene variants, in two large ALS cohorts. Methods: Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) of 469 Irish and 774 Answer ALS people with ALS (pwALS) was analysed for ClinVar LP/P variants associated with other neurological (n = 15541), neurodevelopmental (n = 9761), and neuropsychiatric (n = 321) phenotypes. Inheritance patterns for associated genes (autosomal recessive/autosomal dominant) along with the associated phenotype were validated using OMIM. Standardised clinical data included family history, site and age of onset, El Escorial category, survival, motor decline, and cognitive and behavioural assessments. Known ALS-gene variants and C9orf72 repeat expansion status were included for each cohort. Results: Non-ALS neurological variants were identified in 47/469 (10.0%) Irish and 69/774 (8.9%) Answer ALS participants, most frequently in hereditary spastic paraplegia-associated genes (3.2% Irish; 2.8% Answer ALS). Irish neurological variant carriers showed higher frequency of respiratory onset (10.6% vs 1.2%, Fisher's exact p = 0.002, {Phi} = 0.20) and fewer premorbid behavioural symptoms (0.92 +/- 0.56 vs 3.08 +/- 0.97, Cohen's d = -0.40). Neurodevelopmental variants occurred in 12/469 (2.6%) Irish and 20/774 (2.6%) Answer ALS participants. In the Irish cohort, neurodevelopmental variant carriers had significantly shorter survival in Cox proportional hazards model (log-rank p = 0.005), corresponding to a more than two-fold increased hazard of death (HR = 2.25, 95% CI 1.26-4.00), and had significantly increased familial burden of neuropsychiatric disorders among first- and second-degree relatives (negative binomial IRR for carriers = 2.41, 95% CI: 1.12-5.18, p = 0.025). Across combined cohorts, 18 individuals (Irish n = 8; Answer ALS n = 10) carried [&ge;]2 LP/P variants spanning ALS and non-ALS genes. Conclusion: Rare LP/P variants in genes associated with other neurological and neurodevelopmental disorders occur in up to 12% of pwALS across two independent cohorts. Carriers show distinct phenotypes, shorter survival, and characteristic family history patterns. These findings suggest that extended pleiotropic and oligogenic architectures may contribute to ALS heterogeneity.

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Estimating COVID-19 Cumulative Incidence from Seroprevalence Surveys accounting for Time-Varying Seroreversion: A Fully Bayesian Methodology

Owusu-Boaitey, N.; Meyer, M. J.; Herrera-Esposito, D.; Bottcher, L.; Lukz, M.; Cook, S.; Stoto, M. A.; Kraemer, J. D.

2026-06-10 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.09.26355264 medRxiv
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Seroprevalence surveys reveal the extent of humoral immunity against pathogens such as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), and under some circumstances represent cumulative incidence of prior infection. However, antibody waning - or seroreversion - biases these estimates by reducing assay sensitivity in a time-varying manner. Because assay sensitivity decays over time, naively using serosurveys can substantially bias estimates of SARS-CoV-2 cumulative incidence and fatality rates. The Bayesian assay-specific, time-varying sensitivity adjustment developed in this paper can reliably correct for this bias and account for the delay between infection and serosurvey. In seroprevalence studies conducted in the United States in 2020, adjusting for time-varying sensitivity increased cumulative incidence by up to 1.4-fold, with an adjustment of 1.08 for a national study. Our estimates contrast with a previously published 2-fold adjustment that did not account for assay design. This suggests that previous analyses overestimated cumulative incidence by applying seroreversion corrections that did not account for assay-specific effects, or underestimated cumulative incidence by not applying seroreversion corrections. These biases imply fatality rate underestimation and overestimation, respectively. Our model provides a framework for design-specific time-varying sensitivity corrections in seroprevalence surveys for other pathogens.

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Clonal Hematopoiesis of Indeterminate Potential Refines Cardiovascular Risk Stratification in Cardiovascular-Kidney-Metabolic Syndrome Stages 0-3

Lu, J.; Sun, S.; Deng, Z.; Wang, S.; Wei, C.; Jiang, S.; Li, W.

2026-06-08 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.04.26354963 medRxiv
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Background: Chronic low-grade inflammation drives cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic (CKM) syndrome. Clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP), an age-related driver of systemic inflammation, is linked to several cardiometabolic disorders. However, whether CHIP modifies CKM progression and contributes to heterogeneity in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk within the CKM framework remains uninvestigated. Methods: This cohort study included 307,025 UK Biobank participants at CKM stages 0-3 free of baseline CVD. CHIP status was identified via whole-exome sequencing (WES). The association between CHIP and baseline CKM severity was examined, along with the independent and joint effects of CHIP and CKM stages on incident CVD risk. The joint effects of CHIP and polygenic risk scores (PRS) were further assessed, and the incremental predictive value of incorporating CHIP into the AHA PREVENT equations was evaluated. Results: CHIP carriers were more likely to present with advanced CKM stages [OR 1.14 (1.09-1.20), P < 0.001] and exhibited higher incident CVD risk during follow-up [HR 1.13 (1.08-1.18), P < 0.001]. Significant joint effects between CHIP and CKM stages were observed, with the highest risk among CHIP carriers at CKM stage 3 [HR 1.63 (1.50-1.78), P < 0.001]. Large or multiple CHIP mutations conferred greater hazards, with distinct gene-specific effects observed. Moreover, CHIP and high genetic risk also jointly amplified CVD susceptibility. Most importantly, incorporating CHIP into AHA PREVENT significantly improved risk discrimination. Conclusions: CHIP is a significant risk factor associated with more advanced CKM stages and amplifies incident CVD risk. Integrating CHIP into existing prevention strategies may refine CVD risk stratification.

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Dissecting the functional landscape of rare diseases through genomic variation in a heterogeneous cohort of 11,000 patients

Uria-Regojo, G.; Fernandez-Caballero, L.; Lopez-Alcojor, A.; Lopez-Lopez, L.; Benitez, Y.; Rodilla, C.; Avila Fernandez, A.; Trujillo-Tiebas, M. J.; Osorio, A.; Corton, M.; Almoguera, B.; Ayuso, C.; Minguez, P.

2026-06-11 genetic and genomic medicine 10.64898/2026.06.10.26355349 medRxiv
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Rare diseases (RDs) remain a major diagnostic challenge. Genetic and phenotypic heterogeneity, incomplete knowledge of disease mechanisms, and limitations in variant clinical interpretation leave many patients without a molecular diagnosis. Meanwhile, the growing volume of genomic data generated in clinical practice offers an opportunity to develop data-driven methodologies for exploring disease mechanisms and improving the reanalysis of unsolved cases. We aggregated real-world genomic data from 11,084 unrelated patients with suspected RD. Patients were clinically classified into 122 diseases. We built a multi-disease genomic variant frequency database (FJD-DB), which enabled the development of variant and gene-disease association scores by means of case-control subcohort comparisons across 32 disease groups. Functional enrichment analyses were then used to highlight disease-associated protein domains, pathways, biological processes, and phenotypes. Finally, the resulting knowledge was integrated into a data-driven framework for the guided reanalysis of unsolved RD patients applied to Inherited Retinal Dystrophies (IRD) patients as first use case. FJD-DB contained more than 45 million unique variants, including ~185,000 potentially pathogenic variants. Disease-specific analyses identified disease-associated pathogenic variants and highlighted both established and candidate disease genes. We detected 179 significantly enriched protein domains across 23 diseases, 124 Human Phenotype Ontology terms across 13 diseases, 79 Reactome pathways across 10 diseases, and 72 Gene Ontology biological processes across 8 diseases, revealing highly disease-specific functional signatures. Integration of disease-specific variant, gene, and functional association signals enabled the development of a data-driven framework for guided reanalysis of unsolved RD cases. Applied to more than 1,100 unsolved IRD cases, the framework generated clinically relevant findings in 26 patients, including four molecular diagnoses, seven candidate diagnoses, and 15 cases upgraded from non-informative findings to variants of uncertain significance. Aggregated real-world genomic data can be leveraged to identify disease-associated molecular signals generating novel biological hypotheses. A unified analytical framework provides a scalable strategy for knowledge discovery and guided reanalysis, facilitating the identification of overlooked and potentially novel genetic causes of RDs.

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Cultural engagement and mental disorders: A prospective negative control analysis of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing with linked Hospital Episode Statistics

Qin, P.; Steptoe, A.; Fancourt, D.

2026-06-08 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.05.26354991 medRxiv
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Cultural engagement is associated longitudinally with better mental health and reduced depression incidence, but evidence has largely relied on self-reported symptoms and diagnoses, leaving uncertainty about clinically recorded disorders, and residual confounding remains a concern. Here, we examined whether cultural engagement (including going to cinemas, museums, galleries, exhibitions, theatre, concerts, or opera) predicts hospital-treated mental disorders in 8,274 adults aged 50 years or older from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. Participant records were linked to ICD-10 diagnoses in Hospital Episode Statistics and mortality records with follow-up of up to 20 years. In fully adjusted Cox models accounting for sociodemographic, lifestyle, and social factors and multiple testing, frequent cultural engagement was associated with lower risk of any mental disorders (HR 0.71, 95% CI 0.62-0.82, FDR adjusted P value<0.001), dementia (0.71, 0.56-0.89, FDR adjusted P value=0.010), substance misuse (0.75, 0.59-0.95,FDR adjusted P value=0.040), and mood disorders (0.73, 0.56-0.95, FDR adjusted P value=0.044), but not neurotic disorders. Associations persisted after excluding early incident cases and adjusting for baseline depressive symptoms and cognition, and showed robustness to unmeasured confounders. To further probe causality, eye disease, ear disease, and traumatic brain injury, which share similar socio-demographic profiles to mental disorders, were prespecified as negative control outcomes. Cultural engagement was not associated with any negative control outcomes. These findings provide triangulated statistical data to suggest that cultural engagement is associated with reduced risk of several clinically recorded mental disorders and support further testing of cultural engagement as a population mental health strategy.

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Physical activity, fatty acids, and MASLD risk: Behavioural and metabolic factors jointly shaping liver health in populations

Chen, F.; You, R.; Liu, Y.; Yin, Y.; Liu, A.; Deng, L.; Xie, B.; Fan, J.; Wang, W.

2026-06-08 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.05.26354982 medRxiv
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Background and Aims: MASLD has become the most prevalent chronic liver disease globally. Although MVPA and plasma fatty acids have been individually studied in relation to metabolic health, their independent and combined associations with MASLD incidence remain unclear. We aimed to investigate these associations. Methods: This study included 51,717 UK Biobank participants free of liver disease at baseline, with MVPA measured using wrist-worn accelerometers and plasma fatty acids quantified via NMR. Multivariable-adjusted Cox models and restricted cubic splines were used. Results: Over a median follow-up of 7.8 years, 472 incident cases were identified. In fully adjusted models, meeting recommended MVPA levels together with higher n-6 PUFA concentrations was associated with a 71% lower risk (HR 0.29, 95% CI 0.18-0.45). The MVPA-MASLD association was nonlinear, with risk reduction plateauing at approximately 189 minutes per week. Higher n-6 PUFA was associated with reduced risk, whereas n-3 PUFA showed no significant association. Conclusions: These findings suggest that behavioral and metabolic factors may jointly influence MASLD risk. Further studies in diverse populations are needed to confirm these associations.

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Liver biopsy confirms precise and efficient correction of SERPINA1 after in vivo Base Editing in a Patient with Alpha-1 Antitrypsin Deficiency

Krooss, S. A.; Yang, T.; Yuan, Q.; Drick, N.; Sgodda, M.; Held, J.; Behrendt, P.; Hartleben, B.; Koczulla, R.; Ma, X.; Liu, Y.; Wedemeyer, H.; Janciauskiene, S.; Di Donato, N.; Cantz, T.; Wang, E.; Wu, Y.; Hoeper, M.; Xia, Q.; Ott, M.

2026-06-09 genetic and genomic medicine 10.64898/2026.06.01.26354551 medRxiv
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Background: Alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency (AATD) caused by the PI*ZZ mutation (Glu342Lys) results in hepatic accumulation of misfolded AAT-Z protein and reduced circulating AAT levels, leading to progressive liver disease and emphysema. Gene correction therapy represents a potentially curative approach by directly correcting the underlying genetic defect. We report the first case of successful hepatic gene correction with early histological and functional assessment. Methods/Case presentation: We report the case of a 66-year-old male patient with PI*ZZ AATD who underwent gene correction therapy within the YOLT-202 phase I/Ia clinical trial (clinical trial.gov ID NCT07193615). Ten weeks post treatment a liver biopsy was performed to re-evaluate pre-existing F2 liver fibrosis as measured by elastography before entering the study. Serum samples allowed functional assessment of the AAT-mediated elastase inhibition. Results: Liver biopsy did not show signs of hepatic inflammation and demonstrated 54% (Sanger) and 57% (Illumina) gene correction rate of the PI*ZZ variant on the DNA level with no bystander edits or off-target effects. Following a transient elevation of transaminases during the early post-treatment period, liver enzymes normalized. Monthly serum AAT measurements demonstrated biologically active and stable therapeutic levels throughout follow-up. Conclusions: This case demonstrates efficient and precise hepatic gene correction without concerning histological alterations and with substantial improvement of functional parameters, supporting the feasibility and safety of gene editing approaches for AATD.

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Polygenic risk scores associate with asthma phenotypes and proteomic analyses implicate IL1R1 in two family-based studies

Lee, S.; Moll, M.; Mendez, K.; Prince, N.; Lasky-Su, J.; Lutz, S. M.; Weiss, S. T.; Lange, C.; Kelly, R. S.; Hecker, J.

2026-06-11 genetic and genomic medicine 10.64898/2026.06.06.26355045 medRxiv
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Despite its high prevalence and the discovery of hundreds of genetic associations, the genetic determinants and heterogeneous manifestations of asthma remain incompletely understood. Incorporating polygenic risk scores (PRS) into asthma research offers a powerful approach to quantify inherited susceptibility, refine risk profiles, and advance mechanistic understanding of disease development. For this study, we leveraged whole-genome sequencing (WGS) data from two family-based cohorts of childhood asthma - the Genetics of Asthma in Costa Rica Study (GACRS) and the Childhood Asthma Management Program (CAMP) - to examine the transmission profiles of externally derived asthma PRS and their associations with clinical phenotypes in children with asthma. To further elucidate molecular mechanisms, we integrated large-scale external genome-wide association study (GWAS) summary statistics and genetic prediction models of protein abundance in a two-step proteome-wide association study (PWAS) of asthma. Our findings provide robust evidence supporting the validity of externally derived asthma PRS (asthma PRS association p-value p={10}^{-24} [GACRS and CAMP trios combined] for the Global Biobank Meta-analysis Initiative [GBMI]) and reveal consistent associations with spirometry measures and atopy markers across both studies, as 13 of 21 traits (62%) were significantly associated with the GBMI-PRS in the meta-analysis after multiple-testing correction. Moreover, the results of the integrative proteomic analysis implicate IL-1 signaling in the etiology of asthma, reinforcing the candidacy of IL1R1 antagonists for drug repurposing.

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Global population frequencies of NAT2 star alleles observed in three large biobanks

Sangkuhl, K.; Whirl-Carrillo, M.; Woon, M.; Venkatesh, R.; Keat, K.; Whaley, R.; Ritchie, M. D.; Klein, T. E.

2026-06-11 genetic and genomic medicine 10.64898/2026.06.09.26355281 medRxiv
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NAT2 is an important pharmacogene which encodes the N-acetyltransferase 2 enzyme that is involved in the metabolism of multiple medications, and variants in this gene can affect patient response to these medications. CPIC has published a clinical guideline for prescribing hydralazine using NAT2 genotypes. Just prior to the guideline, updated NAT2 star allele numbering and definitions were released, differing somewhat from the historical nomenclature. Clinical pharmacogenomic testing panels often test for the most common star alleles, so knowledge of the most common updated NAT2 star alleles is critical for the implementation of the CPIC NAT2/hydralazine guideline. We first determine NAT2 diplotype frequencies from UK Biobank (UKBB) 200k phased genomes, then analyzed allele, diplotype, and phenotype population frequencies from the All of Us Research program, PennMedicine BioBank (PMBB) and UKBB 500k datasets. We found that analyzing NAT2 diplotypes from phased data provides critical information for algorithms designed to predict diplotypes from unphased data. We observed that NAT2*5, *6, and *4 were the most common star alleles in that order, and the top 11 most frequent NAT2 star alleles were the same across all biobanks. However, differences in star allele frequencies across biogeographical populations were observed. The largest difference led to a higher frequency of NAT2 poor metabolizer phenotypes as compared to rapid and intermediate metabolizer phenotypes in all global populations except in the EAS population, where NAT2 poor metabolizers were in the minority.